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Tropical Storm KENNETH Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202100
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011
 
CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD IN FIRST LINE OF SECOND PARAGRAPH

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD
COVERS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SHIP LAZS2...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE.  BASED UPON THE SHIP REPORT AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH.  ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE LIMITED BY NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS. 
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING
RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NORTH WHICH COULD
ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH. 
KENNETH WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE BASIN
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND ENTERING A REGION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE LONGER RANGE.
 
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES
YIELDS A MOTION OF 290/10. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE NEW
LONGER-TERM MOTION REPRESENTS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR A
CHANGE OF HEADING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WILL
LARGELY HINGE ON THE POTENCY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUBSEQUENT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT KENNETH WILL BE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LEAN ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD DUE TO
THE CENTER RELOCATION.  
 
KENNETH BECOMES THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE FORMED ON 4 DECEMBER 1983. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 11.5N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 12.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 12.3N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 12.5N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 12.5N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 14.1N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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