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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150240
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 113.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 113.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 114.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  50SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.2N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.1N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 113.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

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