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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 130246
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
0300 UTC THU SEP 13 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KRISTY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 107.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

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