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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 152041
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT VERY TIGHT CIRCULATION...AND THE
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR A CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1756 UTC SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS...AND SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT. THE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A
WEAK SHALLOW LOW LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 23.2N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 24.0N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
 

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