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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160249
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAS BEEN ON A GRADUAL DECLINE...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME SUGGESTION RECENTLY ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS AND
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. 
KRISTY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW AS IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
IS NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 23.7N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 24.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 25.6N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z 26.4N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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