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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160853
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
KRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK AND
ADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND
THIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE
STORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C
WATERS.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
KRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK
TO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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