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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161441
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
A 0955 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF WHAT REMAINS
OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
HOWEVER...REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT AMSU-A
UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. KRISTY SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION AND
CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE SSTS OF 22-23C. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT
LOW IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A SHALLOW...WEAK SYSTEM...THEN DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.  THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 24.5N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 25.3N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 26.1N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 26.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 27.2N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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