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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130246
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT
INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING IS IMPROVING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH A BLEND
OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS REVEAL A QUITE IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WIND ANALYSIS
CONTRADICTS THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES
15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY JUST THE STRONG
OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MUCH
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INDICATES A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY
THE SHIPS AND THE HWRF MODELS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AFTER THAT...AND KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AROUND DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED
PRIMARLY ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF
MODEL ALL SHOW THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KRISTY GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE
GFDL MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS
PARTICULAR MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A NORTH OR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE
TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 18.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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