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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131432
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012
 
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE
BIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING
TOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS
BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE
IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY
WILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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