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Tropical Storm KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141432
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. LATEST
SSMI/SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED ON THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS...BASICALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SINCE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS...THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 295/9. A WEAK TO
MODERATE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IT SHOULD
THEN BEGIN TO MEANDER WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...IT IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ONCE KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THE GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NHC TRACK
FOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW...WHICH MORE APPROPIATELY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 20.4N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 21.3N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 22.5N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 23.5N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 24.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 27.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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