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Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 182033
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
 
THE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND
THE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF
RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND
SOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A
SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES
ARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME
RESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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