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Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 152036
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
 
MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS. THERE
IS NOTHING APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD IMPEDE GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE CIRCULATION
WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS.

THE CENTER EITHER REFORMED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OR THE PREVIOUS
LOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH...MOST LIKELY IT IS A COMBINATION OF
BOTH. TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT STEERING
PATTERN...LANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY MOVES LANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 12.8N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 12.8N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 13.7N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z 19.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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