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Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 160251
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTER OF LANE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...ALTHOUGH THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A
BIT HIGHER.  THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM SEEMS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...LANE SHOULD CROSS A SHARP
SST GRADIENT AND QUICKLY WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 36-48H...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...NOW SHOW LANE REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. 
 
A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 280/6.  A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS LANE MOVES AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TAKE A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM MORE DOMINATED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS STILL LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 13.3N 124.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 13.7N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 14.5N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 15.6N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 16.9N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 19.3N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 20.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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