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Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Discussion Number 6

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162032
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DEVELOPING
SMALL DENSE OVERCAST.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
55 KT...AND COINCIDES WITH THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR LANE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE
RAPID WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE IVCN
CONSENSUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7. LANE IS MOVING WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...LANE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AS A REMNANT
LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS
BASED ON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 14.4N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.7N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.3N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 19.7N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 20.7N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z 20.2N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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