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Tropical Storm LANE Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170240
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON
THE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES.  MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL
INNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING.  WHILE THE
SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED
ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE
INCREASED TO 60 KT.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR.  AFTER
THAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP
DECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN   
DAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C.

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8. 
THIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE
IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.  A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH
72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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