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Tropical Storm MIRIAM Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221431
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 107.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 107.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 107.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

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