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Tropical Storm MIRIAM Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222030
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 107.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 107.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 111.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 116.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 107.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

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