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Tropical Storm MIRIAM Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271433
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012
 
ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS
WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION IS A SMALL PATCH LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...
WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A RATHER HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.  MIRIAM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH
DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL AND THE LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/5.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.  AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE
LEFT OF DUE WEST IN THE WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MARINE-LAYER
STEERING CURRENT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS...OR LESS.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 22.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 22.5N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1200Z 22.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 22.4N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 22.3N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 22.0N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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