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Tropical Storm NORMAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2012

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 281401
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1      15      38      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 15      49      37      NA      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  82      34      24      NA      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE        2       2       2      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       2       2      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X      NA      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    30KT    25KT    NA      NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  7   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LORETO         34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  4  14(18)   6(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34 31  17(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
LOS MOCHIS     50  1   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CULICAN        34 59   3(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
CULICAN        50  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CULICAN        64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MAZATLAN       34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

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