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Tropical Storm PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140844
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF ASCAT
PASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RESEARCH VESSEL MELVILLE...
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT.  AS A
RESULT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
PRISCILLA...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.   

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/10 KT IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.  PRISCILLA SHOULD MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  AS PRISCILLA
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

PRISCILLA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOL WATERS AND
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING
BY 48 HOURS...AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 14.3N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.0N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.1N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.2N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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